Uncertainty Looms in Honduras

On June 28, 2009, when the Honduran Military seized President Manual Zelaya and put him on a plane bound for Costa Rica with his pajamas still on, the world reacted quickly. Within two days, the United Nation’s General Assembly unanimously adopted a resolution, which called for Zelaya’s reinstatement. From The Organization of American States to Washington D.C. and Caracas, Venezuela, the message was the same: Return the ousted President to his post. In a rare instant, Venezuela and America’s Presidents were calling for the same action.

Coups in Honduras in the 20th century, like everywhere else in Central America, were as commonplace as election cycles. Between 1956-1970, Honduras had half a dozen overthrows.

But life in the 21st seems to have become more complicated. Things used to be black and white with seemingly definitive good guys and bad guys. The good guys were here; the bad guys were in the former Soviet Union. Wars were fought against armies and victory was marked on a specific day on the calendar.

The internationally unrecognized interim government is calling its actions legally supported while the rest of the world is calling it a military takeover. The situation in Honduras would be easier to reflect upon if we could just call it a coup d’état and work out our opinions from there. But such a label overlooks serious facts about Honduran state of affairs leading up to June 28.

Three days before Zelaya found himself relocated to Costa Rica, the Honduran Attorney General issued an arrest warrant for him. The day after this warrant was put out, a Honduran Supreme Court Justice issued an order to detain the President for “acting against the government, treason, abuse of authority and usurpation of power.”

Zelaya’s woes began long before this. In April 2009 — with only a quarter of his people approving of him — he had the lowest approval ratings of the 18 regional leaders. The cause dates back to last November when Zelaya announced he would have a fourth ballot box installed during the election the following year to ask Honduran citizens about whether the country’s Constitutional Assembly, which has the power to change parts of the constitution, should convene. In March 2009, Zelaya scheduled a preliminary poll to be held on June 28 2009 to weigh popular support for the plan to have the question appear in November 2009’s election.

His opponents claimed his motives for this poll was to remove term limits so that he could run for office after his term expired. In a CNN interview on June 27, 2009, Zelaya adamantly denied that claim.

If his opponents were correct, and this was Zelaya’s first step towards a power grab, he would have overlooked just how seemingly impossible such a move would have been. There are certain parts of the country’s constitution, which simply cannot be changed, even by the Constitutional Assembly.

Article 239 of Honduras’s Constitution is not alterable and explicit:

“No citizen who has already served as head of the Executive Branch can be President or Vice-President. Whoever violates this law or proposes its reform, as well as those that support such violation directly or indirectly, will immediately cease in their functions and will be unable to hold any public office for a period of 10 years.”

Regardless of Zelaya’s intentions for conducting the electoral poll, he met huge resistance from both the public and other branches of the government. The Supreme Electoral Tribune, the Supreme Court, the Congress and the Attorney General all declared Zelaya’s poll illegal and demanded that he discontinue plans to go through with it.

This is where Zelaya made the decision that caused him to be ousted from the country. Ignoring the mandates of his fellow governing bodies, he ordered the army (who is charge of administering elections in Honduras) to go through with the poll. When the head of military command General Romeo Vasquez Valásquez refused to pass out the election materials because of the Supreme Court ruling, Zelaya relieved him of command and both the Congress and the Supreme Court ruled that Zelaya was in violation of the constitution, and took actions that led to his June 28 ousting. From there Zelaya has had meetings in Managua, Nicaragua and Washington, meeting with powerful world leaders who have sided with him, saying that he should be reinstated.

There are two looming questions that remain. One deals with the past, the other the future. Was this a coup? How will the situation be resolved? Roberto Oliva, a 20-year-old student from Tegucigalpa said, “It wasn’t a coup, but they sure did everything in their power to make it look like one.” ]

Brenda Lagos, a 45-year-old mother working in marketing, echoes that statement, “Nothing that happens in secret is good.”

Yet while many Hondurans are upset about the manner of how it happened, most support the action and see it as a legal and inevitable action brought on by Zelaya’s refusal to respect the law. Oliva, like much of Honduras, is adamant that he will not return. “One’s duty is to follow and execute the law,” he said. “He [Zelaya] stood against the law, and for this he was removed from his post.” Many are worried about what the future will bring but at the same time feel united that a better country will emerge.

A peaceful outcome seems doubtful. With 80 percent of the country believing Zelaya’s ousting legal, it is the people of Honduras against the world. People on the street must walk amongst armed soldiers and underneath the sound of low flying military planes. There are rumors circulating that Nicaragua is poised to invade. Some even believe that this could lead to a war involving countries from across Latin America.

In the upcoming talks between Zelaya, Honduras and the world, people understand that there is more at stake than just the political future of Honduras. After a century of war, Central America is at a point where it can step forward or digress backwards. People in countries from Guatemala to Mexico are still wary of their political leaders and the legal process. They have reasons to be doubtful, but in the midst of this crisis, there is a vibe comparable to an Obama rally. Many Hondurans are cautiously hopeful. Unlike much of the world they see, this as a triumph of a political system often riddled with corruption.

It brings into question the stability of an entire region where, for the first time in a hundred years, a generation without the memory of war is now nearing adulthood. In a short time, the world will see if this fragile peace can endure.

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