​Cruz comes to Fargo

This weekend, I had a chance to see presidential candidate Ted Cruz speak at the North Dakota GOP Convention in Fargo. He spoke to convention delegates hoping to convince them he was the right choice over Donald Trump. Actual voters don’t have a say in the process. Instead, the 25 delegates are chosen by party officials and convention goers. Ben Carson spoke as well on Trump’s behalf. At the end of the convention, Cruz was said to have the win taking 18 of 25 slots available. Final results won’t be known until July but the victory was one Cruz needed, as he trails Trump in the race for the nomination.

That may have been why Cruz decided to show up. He received a rockstar reception with more cell phones popping up when he hit the stage than a concert. It is interesting to see how Cruz, also an anti-establishment candidate, has now become the Republican Party establishment’s best hope to unseat Donald Trump for the GOP nomination, who many party insiders fear cannot win the Presidency.

Cruz tapped into that in his speech at Scheels Arena, citing polls that show Trump losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton. He didn’t strike me at all as Presidential, instead throwing red meat to the partisan crowd joking about Hillary ending up behind a jail cell and offering not much positive but mainly negative rants about the Obama presidency.

But the Republican Party is in an interesting spot. The hierarchy clearly fears a Trump nomination fueled no doubt by comments from Trump like women should be punished for abortions. There is talk that Trump would have to win men by 7 to 1 (made before the abortion comments) in order to win the Presidency, something virtually unprecedented historically unless we are talking landslide elections.

However, the rank and file of the Republican Party are fueling Trump’s run upset at leadership in the party who they feel have not stood up effectively to the Obama presidency. Trump’s off-the-cuff mouth is something they don’t apologize for and feel is needed. Those non-party regular Joes are tired of moderate candidates like Mitt Romney and John McCain, whom they held their nose and voted for and still lost.

So here you have the North Dakota Republican Party, led by moderate Republicans such as Sen. John Hoeven, Gov. Jack Dalrymple, Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem and ND GOP Chairman Jim Poolman, sticking their neck out for Cruz (even though those above didn’t endorse anyone publicly, behind the scenes their influences were felt no doubt) and picking the anti-Trump candidate. How the average Republican voter feels about this would be interesting to see. People who actually believe they can make a difference at the polls by voting don’t want their choice made by super delegates or party officials who believe they know who’s best to win.

Congressman Kevin Cramer went against the grain on Saturday and endorsed Donald Trump. Democrats immediately pounced on this but in a red state this probably won’t hurt him, especially when Trump’s run is being fueled by the rank and file conservative voters who put Cramer in office.

But this isn’t over yet. Not a day goes by when rumors aren’t started about House Speaker Paul Ryan moving in to save the day and take the nomination during a contested convention process where things are settled. He reiterated this week it will not happen. Republicans who fear Trump could push for a contested convention if Trump doesn’t have a majority of delegates by convention time in July. But if they subvert the fact that Trump had the lead at that point and give the nomination to someone other than him, in essence picking the nominee over caucus and primary voters, it will lead to a huge breach in the party and could, I think, lead to a third party nomination for someone like Trump and potentially lead to the end of the Republican Party.

This civil war between conservatives who wanted to get rid of people like Speaker John Boehner because he wasn’t conservative enough and didn’t oppose Obama enough, despite bringing up futile attempts to repeal Obamacare year after year and party leaders/establishment, has been brewing for years. The nominations and losses of McCain and Romney didn’t help. Even if Trump is a guaranteed loser, the worst thing the party could do would be a contested convention subverting his nomination if he had the lead.

Then average conservative voters would feel slighted by the establishment once again, but in doing so choosing a nominee would lead to a breach that could not be repaired. Trump would sue and his foot soldiers would follow suit.

That North Dakota could have a small role in this is very interesting. A reliably red state with moderate Republicans mostly in power. It’s interesting because these same moderates won’t stand up to extreme conservatives in the Legislature when then push legislation like anti-abortion measures or not passing discrimination protections for LGBT North Dakotans, stuff so extreme it could hurt all Republicans politically. Yet they will do it when comes to extreme Presidential nominees like Donald Trump who may hurt them politically.

Break out the popcorn, this isn’t over yet. As frustrating and embarrassing as the presidential race has been to watch, keep in mind your average voter isn’t paying attention yet. And there’s a lot more to happen. If North Dakota is a frontrunner in subverting a Trump nomination, it will be very interesting to see how North Dakota conservative voters react.