Does Brexit mean Trump is inevitable?

It seems like everyone was shocked when Britain voted to leave the European Union last week, even people who voted for it. Of course in typical American fashion, most of us didn’t pay attention to the issue until after it happened.

But once it did happen, there was an immediate thought: will economic malaise and immigration furor lead to a Trump presidency? Is Brexit the early sign of a trend? Pollsters were wrong in the Brexit race and they’ve underestimated Trump pretty much from the moment he started running.

Turnout was high in the UK, higher than any of our recent elections. Sky Data showed that 36% of voters 18-24 and 58% of voters 25-34 showed up, while 72% of voters 35-44 voted, 75% of those 45-54 voted, 81% of voters 55-64, and 83% of voters 65+ voted. So if young people wanted more of a say in their future, they should have voted in higher numbers, also a warning sign for the November election in America.

Google searches, of what happens when the UK exits the EU, spiked after the vote. Never mind that they probably should have done that before the vote. Some people reported they voted to leave but didn’t think it would win and wish they could change their vote. Unfortunately, do-overs are not possible in elections.

There’s no question that there are similarities in the factors which helped the leave camp win in the Brexit election and those fueling Trump. There are some key differences, though, as well. The US has a higher minority population which will not vote for Trump. It’s precisely why you’ve seen GOP leaders like Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell criticize Trump’s calls for banning Muslim refugees in the wake of San Bernardino and Orlando. Just this week, there are reports Trump is backing off his call for a complete ban of Muslim refugees, and is now supporting a watered-down version based on terrorism, which his campaign refuses to define.

No doubt, the reasons for the change in position were sliding poll numbers. But it’s the dilemma Trump faces: does he continue doing what got him to where he is right now? Or try to do a more traditional, grown-up presidential campaign? The problem with the “Let Trump Be” mantra is that it ignores the real problem: Trump himself. Of course no matter how hard you try to change him or adjust or pivot, the inevitable foot-in-mouth disease will return before you know it.

He spent the month after he secured the nomination doing nothing: running no ads, raising no money, not beefing up staff for a general election campaign and not putting in place infrastructure to take on the Hillary machine. Things have changed now. He fired his campaign manager and it appears the Trump campaign is finally raising money, hiring staff, and appearing to get organized. But he will never get that month back. And the election is just over 100 days away.

Hillary was still battling Sanders but she was also spending millions of dollars in battleground states.

During a planned trip to Scotland following the Brexit vote, where Trump could have capitalized on the triumph of the Leave movement, he seemed to make things worse with his bizarre answers, talking about how a downturn in the UK economy would lead to more people coming to his golf course. As always, Trump is about him.

Tuesday, he finally got on track, sort of, by saying he would get the US out of NAFTA if it can’t be renegotiated. It was a direct appeal to blue collar workers in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Trump did so in front of a huge pile of garbage, the optics of which did not go unnoticed, nor the irony of comparisons to his campaign. His message was a direct hit at the corporate burden on Hillary, who was campaigning this week with Elizabeth Warren.

For Hillary to win, I think her message has to be bolder and not just complacently anti-Trump. What will she do to actually produce some change in the economic factors that so many are upset about, which fueled the Trump and Sanders runs?

She does have advantages. It’s her race to lose. That’s why so many people wonder if Trump actually wants to win Is he throwing the race? He’s not, he just wants to do it his way and it’s clear that while that may get you the GOP nomination, it won’t get you the Presidency.

Hillary has already seen encouraging numbers from Sanders supporters coming to her side without a direct appeal. But she still needs to do that, in part to make sure none of those disaffected voters in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio go to Trump.

Unlike Brexit, the Presidential election is not decided by the popular vote. It’s decided by the Electoral college, which favors the Democrats. NPR just did a study which showed that Hillary could lose toss-up states like Ohio and Pennsylvania and still win the presidency if she wins the states where she’s ahead -- like Florida, New York and California.

That’s just a look at present reality. We shouldn’t underestimate Trump or the consequences of a Trump administration.

Republican leaders are squeamish about tying themselves to Trump’s campaign. They’re worried about their own political futures and Trump’s effect on GOP control of the Senate and House. George W. Bush, of all people, is being called in to help in key Senate races.

Hillary Clinton, while not perfect, needs to counter any remaining negative impressions of her.

Donald Trump will continue to attempt character assassination. But when members of his own party are afraid to stand on the same stage with him, it’s not a recipe for success.