​The impact of tariffs on North Dakota farmers and related industries

By Vern Thompson

vern.thompson.nd7@gmail.com

Personal background and historical perspective

My deep concern about tariffs stems from my background as a fourth generation North Dakota farmer. Having lived through the 1980s farm crisis as a young farmer, I witnessed firsthand the challenges that devastated rural America. During that period, we endured a grain embargo against the Soviet Union, interest rates of 19.25% on operating loans and the worst drought since the 1930s. The combination of these hardships led to widespread depression, alcohol abuse, divorces and even suicides throughout the farming community. These challenges had a direct impact on me.

Current challenges facing farmers

Today I see serious trouble emerging on farms again, especially for young farmers. While I once faced 19.25% interest on a $125,000 combine, current farmers are paying 8% interest on a piece of equipment costing $1 million. Although the circumstances have changed, the underlying pressures remain similar. We suffered from the Carter grain embargo in the past; now, farmers are grappling with the effects of the Trump tariffs.

Government and community response: then and now

Public meetings took place throughout North Dakota during the farm crisis of the 1980s. Congressional members, state leaders, farm organizations, church groups and farmers worked together to keep farmers on the land. In contrast, today’s Congressional delegation has been reluctant to hold public meetings or speak out against the harm tariffs are causing to farms and agricultural businesses. Instead of fulfilling promises to reduce grocery costs and curb inflation, the current president appears more focused on punishing critics and manufacturing chaos, turning neighborhoods into conflict zones.

The effects of tariffs on agricultural markets

President Trump’s initial term saw tariffs that caused farmers to lose their soybean markets in China. To compensate for these losses, the government distributed $12 billion in payments to farmers in 2018, followed by an additional $16 billion in 2019, totaling $28 billion in taxpayer-funded relief. These payments increased the deficit and failed to restore lost farm exports overall.

Now, the cycle is repeating. China has not purchased any of the 2026 soybean crop, and farmers have lost export markets due to the 2025 tariffs. As I travel, I notice that farmers and grain elevators are struggling to find space and buyers for current crops.

Economic significance of agriculture in North Dakota

According to a study conducted by North Dakota State University earlier this year, agriculture generates $41.3 billion in annual business volume and supports 123,360 jobs across farming, processing, and related industries in North Dakota alone. Agriculture also provides $10 billion in labor income that sustains rural communities.

Farmers’ sentiments and shared hardships

Farmers I have talked to are growing more unhappy with the president. They express regret, saying, “This is not what I voted for.” Instead of criticizing farmers for their choices, I recognize that we are all facing these challenges together. The trauma of the 1980s farm crisis remains vivid in my memory, especially the heartbreak of losing friends to suicide because of circumstances beyond anyone’s control — weather, interest rates and misguided policies from Washington, D.C.

Tariffs affecting other sectors

It is not only farmers who are suffering from the Trump tariffs. Thousands of businesses in the transportation sector, including our own small trucking company, are feeling the impact. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on trucks built outside the U.S. The Freightliner semi-truck I drive is one of 190,000 manufactured in Mexico and sold throughout the U.S. Replacing our truck would now cost $250,000, with the new tariff adding $62,500. If every one of the 190,000 trucks faces this tariff, the annual cost to replace them rises by $12 billion. Leading brands like Freightliner, International, Peterbilt and Kenworth are manufactured in Mexico.

Tariffs’ impact on major companies and local manufacturing

Large companies are also feeling the effects of the Trump tariffs. This year, John Deere’s profits have dropped by 35%. Their earnings report indicates tariffs are costing $600 million in 2025, and they have laid off more than 2,200 workers since last year. Fargo manufacturing has not escaped the impact, with the Case IH New Holland plant laying off 200 workers earlier this year amid “uncertain trade waters.” Case IH faces the same challenges as John Deere, with tariffs increasing costs and weak demand forcing job cuts and reduced production.

Cross-border trade and the energy sector

As I cross the border between North Dakota and Canada each day, I observe decreased traffic and slower truck transportation. The flow of steel from Canada used for oil well drilling in the Bakken basin has slowed, and new oil drilling is down due to tariffs and economic uncertainty. Major companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have announced thousands of layoffs, highlighting instability in the energy sector.

Tourism and economic impact

Trump's tariffs have hurt tourism. Overall traffic is down approximately 30-36% compared to 2024. Forbes estimates the economic impact from reduced Canadian tourism alone will result in $29 billion in lost revenue. Friends from Canada tell me they have no plans to visit or shop in our state, citing the Trump tariffs and ongoing rhetoric from the president.

In conclusion, these tariffs have disrupted farms, businesses, and communities across North Dakota. Facing challenges reminiscent of past crises, it is vital that we unite, advocate for fair policies and pursue solutions to secure our livelihoods and the future of our state. That is Vern’s View from the Road.